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Risk Analysis

Magno, 4 August 2011

Mercyhurst College, Erie PA

Advanced Analytic Techniques Course

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess the value of Risk Analysis as an analytic technique. The method used for the assessment will be a set of evaluation criteria and a Personal Test Case.

The test case will examine risk analysis as a tool to identify terrorist threats to a potential target and to identify the target’s vulnerabilities to an attack. The ultimate goal of the assessment is to give decision-makers the basis to make-cost effective decisions that will ultimately reduce the threat and mitigate its consequences. The four criteria used for the evaluation of the technique are its ability to:

1. Identify credible threats. Has the technique been successful in indentifying groups or entities with the motivation and capacity to do harm to the target?

2. Identify vulnerabilities of the target to attack. Has the technique identified weaknesses in the target that make it vulnerable to attack?

3. Provide information to formulate countermeasures. Has the technique been able to provide the basis to develop countermeasures to the threat?

4. Reduce target vulnerability. Has use of the technique resulted in the reduction of the target’s vulnerability to the threat?

Criteria

Weight

1

Reduction of vulnerability

50

2

Identification of Vulnerability

20

3

Formulation of Countermeasures

20

4

Identification of Credible Threat

10

The analytic question posed for the personal test case is:

What is the likelihood that the joint US - Pakistani Police Intelligence Center at Rawalpindi will be the target of a terrorist attack within the next 6 to 12 months?

Literature Review

A literature review of eight reliable sources gave a comprehensive critique of risk analysis and its value as an analytic technique to support decision-making. All of the sources were peer reviewed or reliable based on academic or professional standing, subject matter expertise, or proximity and appropriateness. On line sources were evaluated using the Trust Scale and Website Evaluation Worksheet by Dax Norman.

All of the authors with the exception of Douglas Hubbard, in his book “The Failure of Risk Management: Why Its Broken and How to Fix it”, believe that the technique of risk assessment is a valuable tool for decision-makers. The sources consider the technique to be an aid in the efficient management of resources in the avoidance or mitigation of the consequences of threat. The authors presented a wide range of methods to conduct and apply risk assessment.

Douglas Hubbard’s dissent regarding the use and value of the technique was his assertion that users of the technique did not use accurate measurements and mathematically sound computations to assess and manage risk. Further, Hubbard believed that risk assessment was a relatively new concept, without sufficient “best practices” and industry wide proven processes to establish its validity.

Each of the sources presented a slightly different methodology and application of the technique. Jean-Paul Chavas’ Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice examined the use of mathematics and probability theory to increase the accuracy of risk assessments rather than focusing on the use of the technique to develop broad-spectrum risk assessments.

Michael Ronczowski, in his book Terrorism and Organized Hate Crime, explored the use of risk and threat assessments as a result of changes in law enforcement in the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attacks. He believes that terrorism is a law enforcement problem and that risk assessment is a factor in the use of intelligence analysis as a means of forecasting and deterring terrorist activities and events.

Thomas Broder presented a very narrow perspective of risk assessment as it relates to physical security; however, his work Risk Analysis and Security Survey provides the reader with detailed instructions about how to identify the vulnerabilities of a potential terrorist target.

Estimating Terrorism Risk is a work sponsored and published by the Rand Corporation. Its authors are expert analysts and specialists in international relations. The article provides the reader with a technique for an assessment of risk and risk management at the strategic level. The source differs greatly from Broder’s Risk Analysis and the Security Survey, which has a very narrow tactical focus, assessing risk to mitigate threat and enhance security for a specific target.

Robert Clark’s, Intelligence Analysis: A Target Centric Approach, Richards Heuers’ and Randolph Pherson’s, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, and Heather Wynen’s, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, are all “ How to” guides presenting analytic techniques to industry professionals. Each source presents a slightly different approach to risk analysis and taken in total offer a broad view of risk analysis.


In spite of variations in methodology and focus, the sources present systematic approaches to risk analysis. All of those approaches include the identification of a threat or threats, analysis of the vulnerabilities of the object of the threat, and consideration of its consequences or impact.

Description:

Risk Analysis is a technique that seeks to identify a threat or threats to an individual, group, location, or entity, potential vulnerabilities of the object of the threat and the consequences of the threat. Threat for the purposes of this paper is defined as a danger, or potential for loss or harm. Risk analysis is a tool that can be used by decision-makers to identify potential threats and assess the level or degree of the threat so that the user has the ability to avoid the threat or to develop countermeasures to mitigate or neutralize its impact.

Risk analysis is a target centric approach, the target being the object of the threat, that identifies dangers to the target by examining and assessing its strengths and weaknesses. Once a threat is identified, the process seeks to determine the impact of the threat and the "cost" of avoiding the threat or mitigating its impact. The target centric approach gives specific focus to the intelligence process. The user is able to understand the threat in concrete terms allowing for an efficient use of resources in efforts to avoid or reduce the impact of potential threats.

The writer will apply the risk analysis technique to the analytic question about a fictitious potential terrorist target. " What is the likelihood that the joint US - Pakistani Police Intelligence Center at Rawalpindi will be the target of a terrorist attack within the next 6 to 12 months?." The entity and the program described in the question do not exist. Assessments of the strengths and weaknesses of the target will be compared to the strengths and weaknesses of terrorist groups with the capacity and motivation to execute a successful attack against the target. The objective will be to develop measures to deter, or neutralize threats, or reduce the impact of the threat.

Strengths:

Risk Analysis is a technique used by the military, law enforcement, and the private sector to reduce uncertainty in decision-making.

  • Risk analysis gives the user the opportunity to identify specific threats to an entity allowing decision makers an opportunity to deter, avoid, or mitigate the impact of the threats (Broder, J.F., Risk Analysis and the Security Survey).

  • The technique identifies strengths and weaknesses in an entity giving the user an opportunity to devise efficient, effective methods to strengthen weaknesses, adopt countermeasures to the threats, or adopt courses of action to avoid or overcome threats (Chavas, J.P. Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice, Broder, J.F., Risk Analysis and the Security Survey).

  • The technique uses wide varieties of methods to calculate data and quantify risk allowing the decision-maker to develop effective cost efficient options or counter measures (Hubbard, Douglas, W., The Failure of Risk Management: Whay it doesn’t Work and How to Fix It, Chavas, J.P. Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice, Wynen, H., Risk management and intelligence in review Canada, Customs).

Weaknesses:

Risk Analysis as an analytic technique has weaknesses that the user must consider.

  • Risk analysis is a snapshot in time. The evaluation and analysis process must become a constant ongoing process (Broder, J.F., Risk Analysis and the Security Survey).

  • Risk analysis is dependent on the skill, knowledge, experience, and motivation of the user. The most methodical statistic based calculations using mathematically sound methods still rely on the informed assessment of the subject matter expert (Chavas, J.P. Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice).

  • The human mind is limited in its capability and capacity to process information. The process requires specialization and collaboration to be effective (Chavas, J.P. Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice, Heuer, Richards, J., The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis).

How-To:
The process will generate a product that will reduce decision-makers uncertainty about a given requirement or analytic question. The technique considers the basic elements of risk: threat, vulnerability, and consequences, and provides the user with the basis for making an effective and efficient decision to reduce or avoid threat.

1. Formulate a specific analytic question

Analyst(s) work with the decision-maker(s) to develop a clear well defined analytic question so that both the analysts and the decision-maker understand and agree to the objective of the analysis. A specific well-defined analytic question ensures that the analysis meets the needs of the decision-maker(s).

2. Identify the scope of the question and the elements of the problem posed by the question Deconstruct the question or requirement. Identify the critical issue or problem, and any issues or sub-problems that are associated with it and have an affect or impact on it. Identify information needs or gaps. What is the object or target of the risk assessment? What are the specific dangers or threats to the target? What are the vulnerabilities of the target? What are the consequences?

3. Formulate a data collection plan

Plan the collection of data. Identify likely sources for data that will provide the information needed to answer the analytic question or fill the information gaps, and identify the method of collection.

4. Collect and evaluate the data

Collect the data, evaluate it for relevance and reliability.

5. Organize and analyze the data

Organize the relevant reliable data. Categorize the data and organize it so that it is readily retrievable. The analyst reviews the data to identify elements and patterns applicable to the risk assessment.

6. Identify threats and vulnerabilities

Review the data and conduct threat and vulnerability assessments to identify specific threats or vulnerabilities and their consequences.

7. Develop options to mitigate or neutralize risks

Formulate options and measures to avoid, mitigate, or neutralize the risk.

8. Develop recommendations for cost effective methods to mitigate risks

Evaluate the target vulnerabilities, prioritize the threats to the target and their consequences, and develop recommendations to reduce the target's vulnerabilities against the threats making the best use of available resources.

9. Use expert opinion to review validity of analysis: process and recommendations

Conduct a review of the process and product by experienced analysts and subject matter experts to ensure that the process and product is valid and reliable. Conduct additional analyses, revise, and re-work the problem as is necessary.

10. Deliver analytic product to decision maker

The following is diagram is a concept map of the risk analysis process.

For Further Information

1. Broder, J. F. (2006). Risk analysis and the security survey (3rd ed.). Burlington, MA: Butterworth-Heinemann

The analytic question deals with the physical security of a government facility. Broder’s book is very relevant. He provides step-by step procedures to assess facility security and detailed checklists to identify vulnerability.

2. Clark, R. M. (2007). Intelligence analysis: A target-centric approach (2nd ed.). Washington, D.C.: CQ Press

Richard Clark’s book was informative and provided a good insight into the concepts of risk analysis and the relationship of the motivations and capacity of the threat to the vulnerability of the target.


3. Heuer, R. J., Pherson, R. H. (2011). Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis.Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.

This source, written by two well know subject matter experts, is an excellent and important guide for intelligence analysts. The source offers a simple and clear explanation of a wide range of important analytic techniques. The chapters, Selecting Structured Techniques,

Decomposition and Visualization, and Evaluation of Techniques were especially helpful in the development of this paper and the ranking and scoring of criteria used in the assessment.

4. Willis, H. H., Morral, A.R., Kelly, T.K. and Medby, J.J. (2011) Estimating Terrorism Risk, Santa Monica, Calif: RAND Corporation.

Estimating Terrorism Risk has minimal application to the personal test case but it gives an excellent explanation of the use of risk analysis in assessing and managing risk at the strategic level. It is worthwhile and informative reading.

Personal Test Case

This paper examines a personal test case to evaluate the effectiveness of risk analysis as an analytic technique. The personal test case was formulated to answer an analytic question using risk analysis.

The exercise was an excellent learning experience. It gave the writer the opportunity for hands on practice conducting risk, threat and vulnerability assessments. It was also an opportunity to select and develop measurement methods to support the assessments.

The following steps were used to conduct the risk assessment and to answer the analytic question: What is the likelihood that the joint US - Pakistani Police Intelligence Center at Rawalpindi will be the target of a terrorist attack within the next 6 to 12 months?

  1. Formulate a specific analytic question.
    The analyst or the head of the analytic unit working with the decision-maker identified a specific issue of concern: What is the likelihood that the joint United States (US) - Pakistani Police Intelligence Center at Rawalpindi (UPIC) will be the target of a terrorist attack within the next 6 to 12 months? The product of risk analysis is time sensitive. The pilot project has the potential to be an effective tool in combating terrorism in the region and therefore it is likely to be seen as a symbolic target and draw the attention of terrorist groups. James Brorder ( Risk Analysis and the Security Survey) makes the point that threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences change over time. Risk analyses should be conducted periodically. Therefore, the focus of the analysis a period of 6 to 12 months.

  2. Identify the scope of the question and the elements of the problem posed by the question.

The analytic question deals with the security of the UPIC facility. Sub-problems are the physical security of the UPIC facility, its personnel its operations, and information. The consequences of a successful attack may include the loss of life and resources, political, and strategic impact.

  1. Formulate a data collection plan.
    The process required that data be collected to identify credible threats and vulnerabilities of the subject target. Collection was restricted to open source data. Data was collected from reliable sources about the most prominent and capable terrorist groups with the ability and desire to conduct a successful attack at the site. Information about the latest trends in terrorist tactics, as well as historic information to identify patterns of behavior of groups identified as credible threats was collected from reliable internet sources. Information about target security and vulnerability was collected using security site surveys obtained from subject matter experts in physical security. In this case, security check lists furnished in Risk Analysis and the Security Survey by James Broder were used to identify target vulnerabilities.

  2. Collect and evaluate the data
    Information was collected from internet open sources. The information was evaluated for its relevance and application to the analytic question posed. The relevant data was then evaluated for reliability using the Dax Norman Trust Scale and Web Site Evaluation Worksheet (Appendix A).

  3. Organize and analyze the data
    Reliable relevant datawas categorized and organized by type, date, source, and reliability, and entered into a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet for easy retrieval and manipulation.

  4. Identify threats and vulnerabilities
    In the personal test case, the threat is the possibility of a terrorist attack on the US-Pakistani Joint Intelligence Center at Rawalpindi (UPIC). The intelligence center and the program are fictitious entities. The model for the physical layout of the center and its security profile (fig.1) is the Starfighter base from the 1984 film, The Last Starfighter, produced by Universal Pictures (/title/tt0087597/).

    Figure 1

























    Information gathered from the latest report of terrorist activity by the US National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC)1 and the Council for Foreign Relations (CFR) 2 identified the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), commonly known as the Pakistani Taliban, as the primary threat to US assets in Pakistan. Other terrorist groups which are active and have the capacity to threaten US targets in Pakistan are the Baluch Liberation Army (BLA), Baluchistan Republican Army (BRA), are insurgent groups whose motivation is to seek independence from Pakistan and create an independent state. A statistical report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 3 found that from 2007 to 2010 the TTP was responsible for 773 terrorist attacks in Pakistan, the BLA, 126, the BRA 42 and the LEI for 31. The Lashcar i Jhangvi although only responsible for 17 attacks has engaged hard targets with complex tactics6, the BLUF was responsible for only nine successful attacks. During the same period Al-Qaida, which has been perceived as the greatest threat to US, was only responsible for three attacks (

    * Note: Sources for footnotes 1-6 are found in Appendix B

    Fig.2).

    The Al-Qaida attacks were bombings of soft targets and relatively unsophisticated as opposed to the wide variety of attacks of varied sophistication that were successfully carried out by the TTP. An example of the high level of capability of TTP operations was the May attack at a Pakistani naval base4.

    The Taliban terrorists were able to penetrate a high security Pakistani naval installation, destroy two fighter aircraft, recently purchased from the US government, and hold their position for 17 hours before Pakistani forces were able to overcome them. The frequency and severity of TTP attacks have increased significantly since the May 1 US strike against Al-Qaida which took the life of Osama Bin-Laden5.
    Other terrorist groups identified in reporting of terrorist events are smaller, less active and are insurgent or sectarian groups with little motivation to threaten US targets and minimal capacity3.

    The TTP is highly likely to be the greatest threat to the UPIC. It is, by far, the most active group operating in the region. Assessments and rankings of the most active Pakistani terror groups found the TTP to be the most capable and motivated to strike at a US target with Al-Qaida a close second. The criteria used for determining capability were frequency of operations, coordination, operational capability, expertise of personnel, and target selection (fig. 3-4).



    Figure 3

Criteria Evaluation Scale for Capability

 

Frequency of Operations (F)

Coordination ( C )

Operational Capability (OC)

Personnel Expertise (E)

Target Selection (T)

 

Capability= ( F + C + OC + E + T) / 5

High 7-10

Consistent successful operations over 48 months or more

Coordinated execution of Multiple personnel ( 8 or more) or units (2 or more) or more in simultaneous operations

Sophisticated and high quality weapons and large support base in a variety of geographic areas and successful complex attack scenarios

Dedicated personnel with specialized expertise and training

Successful attacks against hard and soft targets

 

 

 

 

 

 

Medium 4-7

Consistent successful operations over 24 to 48 months

Coordination of multiple personnel (6 or more) or units (2 or more) in a single operation

High quality weapons strong base of support in limited area successful attack scenarios

Well trained personnel with limited expertise in specialties - Use of Ad Hoc personnel for specialized operations

Limited success against hard targets high number of successes (12 or more) against soft targets

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low 2-3

Sporadic successful operations over 24 to 48 months

Coordination of small unit 2-4 in a single operation

Poor quality and improvised weapons weak or limited support base in a wide geographic area

Dedicated personnel with minimal specialty expertise

Successful against soft targets only

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poor 1

More unsuccessful than successful operations over 24 to 48 months

Small unit 1-2 personnel in single operation

Poorly armed with low quality weaponry, weak support base in a limited area

Limited personnel with general experience and knowledge

Sporadic success against soft targets

Figure 4

Group

Frequency of Operations

Coordination

Operational Capability

Personnel Expertise

Target Selection

Capability Score

TTP

10

8

10

7

10

8

BLA

5

4

4

2

5

4

BRA

5

3

3

5

2

3.6

LEI

3

3

2

3

2

2.6

Lashkar I Jhangvi

5

5

6

3

7

5.2

BLUF

1

1

1

1

1

1

Al-Qaida

4

6

7

8

3

5.6

Motivation is defined as a reason and desire to act. The criteria used for measuring the reason for a terrorist groups’ selection of the object of their attack and their desire to act are described in the matrices labeled Figures 5 and 6.



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