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Most Informative

Most informative was Canadian Customs recognition of the value of threat analysis and their analysis and management techniques that were successful in streamlining their operations while maintaining increased focus on the highest-level threats. Customs analysts conduct periodic reviews of their threat analysis and use post seizure analyses to ensure their validity.

About the Source Author

The book, Intelligence Models and Best Practices is a book written and published by the International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts (IALEIA). The IALEIA is an internationally recognized professional organization that is a forum for discussion for law enforcement professional working in intelligence. The organization promotes professional standards for intelligence analysts and supports the profession with educational materials, opportunities, and training. Heather Wynen, a Senior Intelligence Analyst for Canadian Customs (reorganized in 2003 to become Canadian Border Services Agency) wrote the chapter of the book about threat analysis and management.

Source Reliability

The source was retrieved from the website of the IALEIA and has a very high credibility rating (49.82). The author of the material reviewed is a documented professional in intelligence employed by the Canadian Border Services Agency.

Source Critiqued By

Edward N. Magno

emagno@

Mercyhurst College, Erie PA

Advanced Analytic Techniques Course

July 5, 2011

Sources Cited by This Source

The author did not cite any sources for this chapter. The work was an explanatory piece about the process of threat analysis used by Canadian Customs and case studies of its application.

Source 7, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Heuer, R. J., Pherson, R. H. (2011). Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.

Analytic Technique: Risk Analysis

Purpose of the Source

The intent of the authors is to provide intelligence analysts and members of the intelligence community a wide range of reliable, proven analytic techniques and methods.

Content

The source presents a menu of more than 50 of the latest analytic techniques and a process to choose one or more of these techniques to apply to the needs or analytic problem faced by the reader or analyst. The explanations and step by step “how to” for each of these techniques are not as detailed as those offered by other authors or sources but they are concise and effective. The source does not specifically address Risk Analysis but one or more of the techniques presented in the book can be used to support a threat analysis and address the writer’s analytic question. An example of the techniques presented by the authors is Weighted Ranking as a method for ranking, scoring, and prioritizing. A weighted ranking can be used in a threat or vulnerability assessment during the conduct of a risk assessment.

Strengths of the Techniques

The process and matrices provided by the source are useful to the user to support a threat analysis.

  • Provide an analytic framework to understand a problem

  • A structured process to rank and score data and options

  • Provide a visual representation of complex data

Weaknesses of the Technique

The authors recognize that a weighted ranking has weaknesses that need to be considered.

  • Subject to the skill, knowledge and experience of the individual or group members conducting the activity

  • In a group setting the ranking does not show the range of opinions of the members of the group

Steps

The authors of the source material offer a step by step method for producing a weighted ranking.

  1. Calibrated experts select data or items used in the analysis

  2. A set of criteria are selected for ranking

  3. A table is created with the items to be ranked listed across the top row and

  4. Criteria for ranking are listed in the far left column and the weight given to the criteria in the next column to the right totals ,ust add up to 100%

  5. Work across the rows multiplying the criteria weight by the a value (1-10) of each Item to satisfy each of the the selected criteria

  6. Add the values down the column for each item

  7. The resultant scores represent the ranking of the items against one another

Purpose of the Technique

The technique can be used to identify priorities or rank potential threats to a target

Comparison

Douglas Hubbard in, The Failure of Threat Analysis, is focused on the use of threat analysis in making decisions about financial aspects of business and industry. He offers methods to allow users of threat analysis to attain acceptable levels of accuracy and uniformity industry wide.

James Broder’s book Risk Analysis and the Security Survey uses risk analysis with a limited focus the narrow to providing security of corporate assets and reducing the risk of damage or loss.

Jean-Paul Chavas’ Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice uses advanced mathematics and probability theory to assess risk and loss in the economics of agriculture.

Ronczowski’s book discusses changes in the processes and techniques used in law enforcement in intelligence and analysis as a means of forecasting and deterring threats rather than investigating and responding.

Robert M. Clark is the first of the sources to apply risk analysis, assessment, and management to the field of intelligence and national security.

The publication of the International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts (IALEIA) is a menu of proven intelligence techniques used by law enforcement. The description and explanation of the use of risk analysis and management was brief, informative and presented with case studies to show its application.

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis is a hands on source for analysts. It presents a much wider range and scope of techniques than is presented by the publication of the IALEIA which is limited and dated. Although the source does not have the specific focus of Clark’s work on risk analysis, the techniques presented are more effective applications simply explained.

In this same way the source surpasses Ronczowski’s book in application and focus on specific useful methods. Structured Analytic Techniques does not present the mathematic basis for threat analysis as does Chavas’ work but the techniques presented give accuate, valid, processes that are appropriate for intelligence analysts working in law enforcement and national security. The source has a wider more appropriate scope than Broder’s book and better overall application than that of Hubbard who presents us with valuable snippets of information and techniques of value.

Most Informative

Identifying the most informative aspects of this book is difficult. The source is a wealth of knowledge, filled with important effective techniques and methods that can be used by the reader in the field of intelligence analysis. The section of the book on Weighted Ranking is an example. The explanation and discussion was a simple, easy to understand treatment of an important analytic technique.

About the Source Author

The source is a book written by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson both of whom are retired from the Central Intelligence Agency and are recognized experts in the field of intelligence analysis. Although Heuer is retired from the CIA, he has had a continuing relationship with the agency for about 50 years as an analyst, an innovator of intelligence techniques, and an instructor. He has an AB in Philosophy from Williams College and an MA in International Relations from the University of Souhern California.

Pherson retired with 28 years of experience with the U.S. Intelligence Community. He served in various posts including National Intelligence Officer for Latin America. He collaborated with Heuer in the development of the Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) software tool. He has an AB from Dartmouth College and an M.A. in international relations from Yale.

Source Reliability

The source is a book written by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson. It is not an internet source. The source is highly reliable based on the background, knowledge and experience of its authors. Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson are both recognized and highly regarded experts in the field of intelligence analysis.

Source Critiqued By

Edward N. Magno

emagno@

Mercyhurst College, Erie PA

Advanced Analytic Techniques Course

July 5, 2011

Sources Cited by This Source

Gawade, A. (2007). The checklist. New Yorker. /magazine/bios/atul_gawande/search?contributorName=atul%20gawande

Goldsmith, M. (2008). Preparing your professional checklist. Business Week. /managing/content/jan2008/ca20080115_768325.htm

Source 8, Estimating Terrorism Risk

Willis, H. H., Morral, A.R., Kelly, T.K. and Medby, J.J. (2011) Estimating Terrorism Risk, Santa Monica, Calif: RAND Corporation. /pubs/monographs/MG388

Analytic Technique: Risk Analysis

Purpose of the Source

The source provides is an informative article that offers a method of conducting a risk analysis “designed to perform well across a wide range of threat scenarios and risk types.”

Content

The authors offer the formula Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Probability. They point out that the two primary reasons for uncertainty in estimating risk when it comes to terrorism is “variability and error in estimates of threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences” and the differences in values that are placed on different consequences. Therefore analysis often relies on best estimates “even when they have a low probability of being correct—and a high probability of being wrong.” An alternative approach offered by the source is to define multiple sets of measures for threats, vulnerabilities and consequences and use the multiple estimates and generate a single estimate from the multiple sets.

Strengths of the Technique

The authors believe that although risk analysis has negative aspects it is a valuable analytic tool.

  • Provides assessment to direct resources to meet threats at strategic level

Weaknesses of the Technique

The authors identify the weaknesses and shortfalls of the technique.

  • Does not produce the most accurate assessment

  • Does not allow adjustment assessment for localized changes in threat or vulnerability

Steps

The authors describe a systematic process to apply the technique.

1.Define multiple sets of threats, vulnerabilities and consequence measures

Examine the probabilities of attacks against specific targets

Consider different types of attacks against those targets

Consequences of the attacks

2. Generate multiple risk estimates

Use the values generated in the threat, vulnerability, and consequence sets to produce multiple estimates

Identify broad categories of risk based on the estimates

3. Using the multiple estimates formulate a single description of risk across multiple perspectives

4. Generate strategies effective against broad categories of risk

Purpose of the Technique

Risk Analysis is presented as a means for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to allocate their security resources in the most efficient manner to enact programs to prevent, prepare for, and respond to, terrorist activities and attacks. The problem faced by DHS is the magnitude of the problem and its range of responsibility and authority. The source attempts to provide a method to accomplish an assessment that can enable as efficient a response as possible in given the scope of authority and responsibility of the DHS.

Comparison

Estimating Terrorism Risk is written to provide a technique for an assessment of risk and to support risk management at the strategic level. The sources differs greatly from Broder’s Risk Analysis and the Security Survey which has a very narrow tactical focus, assessing risk to mitigate threat and enhance security for a specific target.

Estimating Terrorism Risk also differs from the works by Clark, Intelligence Analysis: A Target Centric Approach, Heuers and Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, and Heather Wynen, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, that were all treatments of techniques to be used to asses specific threats.

Douglas Hubbard’s, The Failure of Threat Analysis, and Jean-Paul Chavas’ Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice examine the use of mathematics and probability theory to increase the accuracy of risk assessments rather than focusing on the use of the technique to develop broad spectrum risk assessments.

Michael Ronczowski’s book Terrorism and Organized Hate Crime has the most common ground with this source because it discusses changes in the processes and techniques used in law enforcement in intelligence and analysis as a means of forecasting and deterring threats but it does not address wide scope risk assessment for strategic planning.

Most Informative

The most informative aspect of this source was the clear and succinct explanation of the elements of risk assessment, the means to conduct an effective assessment, and their application which is relevant to the personal test case.

About the Source Authors

Henry H. Willis is the Associate Director of the Homeland Security and Defense Center of the Rand Corportation. Willis has a Ph.D. in engineering and public policy, Carnegie Mellon University; M.A. in environmental engineering and science, University of Cincinnati; B.A. in chemistry and environmental sciences, University of Pennsylvania.

Andrew R. Morral is a senior behavioral scientist at the RAND Corporation, and director of the RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center. Morral has a PHD in Psychology from New School University .

Terrance K. Kelly is a Senior Researcher for the Rand Corporation he has a Ph.D. in mathematics, M.S. in computer and systems engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute; M.A. in strategic studies, U.S. Army War College; B.S. in strategic studies, United States Military Academy, West Point.

Jamison Jo Medbly is a Senior Researcher for the Rand Corporation. She has a Master’s Degree in Political Science from California State University and a Bachelor’s Degree in International Economics from the University of California at Los Angeles.

Source Reliability

The source is highly reliable, it was produced by the Rand Corporation, an independent and highly regarded organization that is used by the United States government and military, as well as non-government organizations, for intelligence estimates and research. The company is recognized internationally as a reliable and innovative source for research in foreign policy and national security. The authors of the source are qualified, experienced and recognized subject matter experts in their respective fields.

The Rand Corporation web site, has very high credibility, a score of 49.64 on the Trust and Website Reliability Scale (© Dax R. Norman, 2001. Unlimited personal, or education use authorized with this statement.).

Source Critiqued By

Edward N. Magno

emagno@

Mercyhurst College, Erie PA

Advanced Analytic Techniques Course

July 5, 2011

Sources Cited by This Source

Bozzette, S.A., Boer, R., Bhatnagar, A., Brower, J.L. Keeler, E.B., Morton, S.E., Stoto, M.A.,(2003). A model for a smallpox-vaccination Policy, The New England Journal of Medicine, 348,(5), 416–425.

Abt, C. C. (2003) The economic impact of nuclear terrorist attacks on freight transport systems in the age of seaport vulnerability , prepared for the U.S. Department of Transportation, Cambridge, Mass.: Abt Associates, 2003. /reports/ES-Economic _Impact_of_Nuclear_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf as of June 28, 2005.

Ayyub, B.M.(2005). Risk analysis for critical infrastructure and key asset protection: methods and challenges c.edu/dept/create/events/2004_11_18/Risk_Analysis_for_Critical_Infrastructure_and_Key _Asset_Protection.pdf as of June 28, 2005.

Canada, Ben, State Homeland Security Grant Program: Hypothetical Distribution Patterns of a Risk-Based Formula, Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, 2003.

Chankong, Vira, and Yacov Y. Haimes, Multiobjective Decisionmaking: Theory and Methodology, New York: North Holland, 1983.

Clemen, Robert T., “Combining Economic Forecasts: A Review and Annotated Bibliography,” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1989, pp. 559–583.

Davis, Paul K., “Institutionalizing Planning for Adaptiveness,” in Paul K. Davis, ed., New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MR-400-RC, 1994, pp. 73–100. Online at /publications/MR/MR400 as of June 27, 2005.

Davis, Paul K., Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MR-1513-OSD, 2002. Online at http:// /publications/MR/MR1513 as of June 27, 2005.

Haimes, Yacov Y., Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley-Interscience, 2004.

Hammond, John S., Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa, Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1999.

Howard, Ronald A., James E. Matheson, and Katherine L., Readings in Decision Analysis, 2nd ed., Menlo Park, Calif.: Decision Analysis Group, Stanford Research Institute, 1977.

Keeney, Ralph L., Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1992.

Lakdawalla, Darius, and George Zanjani, Insurance, Self-Protection, and the Economics of Terrorism, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2004. Online at /publications/WR/WR171 as of June 28, 2005.

Lempert, Robert J., Steven W. Popper, and Steven C. Bankes, Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MR-1626- CR, 2003. Online at /publications/MR/MR1626 as of June 27, 2005.

Morgan, M. Granger, Max Henrion, and Mitchell Small, Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990. Bibliography 65

Morgan, M. Granger, and David W. Keith, “Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts,” Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 29, No. 10, 1995, pp. 468A–476A. Online at http://www.ucalgary.ca/~keith/ bjectiveJudgmentsByClimate%20Experts.s. pdf as of July 16, 2005.

Paté-Cornell, M. Elizabeth, Risks of Terrorist Attacks: Probabilistic Assessment and Use of Intelligence Information, presented at Symposium on Terrorism Risk Analysis, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, Calif., January 15, 2005. Online at c.edu/dept/create/ events/2005_02_01/Risks_of_Terrorist_Attacks_Probabilistic_ Assessment_and_use_of_Intelligence_Information.pdf as of June 28, 2005.

Ransdell, Tim, and Shervin Boloorian, Federal Formula Grants and California, Washington, D.C.: California Institute for Federal Policy Research, 2004.

Rinaldi, Steven M., James P. Peerenboom, and Terrence K. Kelly, “Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies,” IEEE Control Systems Magazine, Vol. 21, No. 6, 2001, pp. 11–25. Risk Management Solutions, Managing Terrorism Risk, Newark, Calif.: Risk Management Solutions, 2003. Online at / publications/terrorism_risk_modeling.pdf as of June 28, 2005. RMS. See Risk Management Solutions.

Savage, L. J., “The Theory of Statistical Decision,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol 46, No. 253, 1951, pp. 55–67. Stern, Paul C., and Harvey V. Fineberg, Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society, Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1996.

U.S. Census Bureau, United States Census 2000, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000. Online at http://www.census.gov/main/www/ cen2000.html as of June 28, 2005.

U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office for Domestic Preparedness, Fiscal Year 2004 Urban Areas Security Initiative Grant Program: Program Guidelines and Application Kit, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2004. Online at http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/ assetlibrary/grants_audit_fy04uasi.pdf as of June 27, 2005. 66 Estimating Terrorism Risk.

U.S. House of Representatives, Homeland Security: The Balance Between Crisis and consequence Management Through Training and Assistance: Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism, and Homeland Security of the Committee on the Judiciary, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2003. Online at http://frwebgate .access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=108_house_hearings&docid =f:90547.wais.pdf as of June 28, 2005.

von Winterfeldt, Detlof, and Heather Rosoff, Using Project Risk Analysis to Counter Terrorism, presented at Symposium on Terrorism Risk Analysis, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, Calif., January 13–14, 2005. Online at c.edu/dept/create/events/2005_01_31/ Using_Project_Risk_Analysis_to_Counter_Terrorism.pdf as of June 28, 2005.

Woo, Gordon, Quantifying Insurance Terrorism Risk, Newark, Calif.: Risk Management Solutions, 2002a. Online at / NewsPress/Quantifying_Insurance_Terrorism_Risk.pdf as of June 28, 2005. ———, Understanding Terrorism Risk, Newark, Calif.: Risk Management Solutions, 2002b. Online at /Publications/ UnderstandTerRisk_Woo_RiskReport04.pdf as of June 28, 2005

Appendix A

Appendix B

Personal Test Case

Reference notes

1. United States National Counterterrorism Center 2011 Counter Terrorism Calendar http://www.nctc.gov/site/index.html

2. Bajoria, J., Pakistan’s new generation of terrorists. Council on Foreign Relations /pakistan/pakistans-new-generation-terrorists/p15422

3. Gagel, A.C., Cordesman, A.H.(2011) Patterns in terrorism in North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia: 2007-2010. Washington, D.C. Center for Strategic and International Studies. /files/publication/110629_MENA_Central_Asia_China_Terrorism_2007_2010.pdf

4. Jung, A., Khan, F., Haque, J. (2011) Navy says PNS base under control after attack. BBC News: .pk/story/173888/blast-on-dalmia-road/

5. BBC May 25, 2011 .pk/story/175661/timeline-terrorist-attacks-in-pakistan-in-may-2011/

6. Abbas, Hassan. Council for Foreign Relations /pakistan/ctc-sentinel-defining-punjabi-taliban-network/p20409

Appendix C

Perimeter Security

Are there exterior barriers extending the physical perimeter (i.e., concrete barriers, planters, bollards, boulders, fences, vehicle gate controls, etc.) of the facility? Yes ____ No ____

Are there parking barriers separating the parking/drop-off area from the facility?

Yes ____ No ____

Comment:

________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________________

Distance in meters from the building to the nearest public street: ____________

Distance in meters from the building to the nearest public on-street parking: _______

Distance in meters from the building to the nearest public parking lot: __________

Are there parks, plazas, or other public areas immediately adjacent to the building? Yes _____ No _____

Exterior

Item

Yes

No

Description/comments

Outer Perimeter General

Property is fenced or walled

Blast walls present

Anti-ram material in effective locations

Nearest street within 10 meters of the facility structure

Access driveways are straight

Access driveways are curved

CCTV cameras monitoring outer perimeter areas

Back-up power located on outer perimeter

Outer perimeter is lit

Main floor windows/glass doors glazed to resist blasts

Second floor windows/glass doors glazed to resist blasts

Do blast walls protect the facility?

Gas/fuel storage areas are protected

Exterior

Item

Yes

No

Description/comments

Perimeter

Adequate general lighting

Entrance well lit

Walkways adequately lit

Stairs or ramps well lit

Building façade lit

Adequate entry/exit signage

Security signage

CCTV cameras present

CCTV cameras work

Adequate CCTV image at night

CCTV camera coverage adequate

Anti-ram barriers

Adequate stand off distance

Vehicle search area

Guest baggage search area

Controlled vehicle approach

Security personnel visible

Alternate guest entry/exit doors well marked

Alternate guest entry/exit doors controlled

Non-guest entry doors locked

Façade thickness

Façade material (cement, wood, etc.)



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