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Analytic Method Discussed: Risk Analysis

Purpose of the book:

The primary purpose of this book is commercial gain. The book is designed to persuade and inform its readers focusing on the premise that Risk Management and Risk Analysis as a technique in the form and format it is currently presented is a failure. The underlying message is that the author is one of the preeminent experts in the field, with solutions to risk analysis and management problems and the readers should buy his books, attend his seminars, and contract him as a consultant. The author addresses risk analysis as a critical element within the larger context of risk management.

Content:

Hubbard has an extremely negative view of Risk Management. He believes that the technique of risk management and risk analysis is a new and rapidly developing trend. Further, there is not enough of a field of experience to make an adequate assessment of its effectiveness.

Hubbard begins his book by asking three questions about risk analysis and management. Do the methods work? Would anyone in the organization know if they did not work? If they did not work what would be the consequences? His opinion is that the answer to these questions in the majority of cases is no, no, and none!

Hubbard believes that there is no “real scientific evidence” that can be used to support the effectiveness of Risk Management. In Chapter 3 on pages 40-41, Hubbard examines a number of common risk analysis and management methods and the reasons they are flawed:

  • A Formal Internal Survey but “studies show, self-assessments are not reliable.”

  • A structured method but “there are a lot of structured methods that are proven not to work. (Astrology, for example, is structured).”

  • A change in culture but “This, by itself, is not an objective of risk management”

  • The underlying theory is mathematically proven but “I find that most of the time when this claim is used, the person claiming this cannot actually produce or explain the mathematical proof, nor can the person they heard it from. In many cases, it appears to be something passed on without question.”

  • Testimonial proof but “if the previous users of the method evaluated it using criteria no better than those listed above, then the testimonial is not evidence of effectiveness. “

Hubbard offers a number of methods for achieving effectiveness in risk analysis and risk management methods (p.42).

  • Statistical inferences based on large samples, direct evidence of cause and effect supported by statistical verification,

  • “Component testing of risk management: This allows us to use existing research on parts of the risk management method, some of which have been thoroughly tested for decades. This is especially effective in reducing analysis errors caused by Common Mode Failure.

  • Comparing the items evaluated in a risk management system against a list of known risks for a company.

  • Direct evidence cause and effect.

Hubbard uses Monte Carlo Simulations as an example of the broad based statistic method that can be used in risk analysis to make it effective. He also relies heavily on calibrated estimators to quantify qualitative factors that then can be used as a basis for statistical analysis.

Application of Method:
  • The methods that Hubbard presents are valid and applicable to risk analysis efforts. His technique of using calibrated estimators and statistical inferences using large samples, much of which are provided by calibrated estimators are good methods to increase the accuracy and likelihood of success in risk analysis.

Strengths:

Hubbard is critical of the technique of Risk Analysis as it is currently being applied however be believes the technique is valid and valuable. He has identified a number of strengths of the technique:

  • Risk analysis and management identifies weaknesses and problem areas in the target entity.
  • Risk analysis can be used to provide reasonably accurate data to identify risks and formulate viable countermeasures and responses to those risks.
  • An accurate properly managed risk analysis can save and protect important and  significant assets
 Weaknesses:

The basis of Hubbard’s strong negative attitude toward Risk Analysis is that:

  • Risk Management analysis is a relatively new field without proven methodologies or best practices
  • Most organizations and managers using risk analysis do not use accurate statistically valid computations to identify risk and formulate effective avoidance and mitigation measures.

Steps

Hubbard primary focus is primarily ensuring accuracy and consistency of the measurement and calculation of risk than with providing a structured step by step method for the technique.

Purpose of the Technique

Hubbard believes that risk assessment conducted using effective accurate measurement tools will support decision-makers to make cost effective choices and avoid the damage caused by uninformed decisions.

 Most informative:

The most informative points of this book are that the field of Risk Analysis is relatively new and best practices and an evaluation of the effectiveness of the technique has yet to be established and measured.

About the Author:  

The author is a recognized source and subject matter expert in the field of measurement and analytical methodology. His primary experience is as a computer engineer and software specialist with a degree in Business Information Systems.

Education and certifications:

California State Teaching Credential June 2001 (Expired)
Bachelors Degree, Business Information Systems, - June 2001
Associate in Science, Computer Information Systems, Southwestern College - May 86
Apple System Engineer, Apple Education Sales Consultant (AESC) - 85- 93
Apple Computer Network Administration and Desktop Communications 85 - 86

Micro-Technician Certificates: Programmer, Operator, and Bookkeeper 84 - 85
Training Workshops, Cisco Router, Windows NT, Fiber Optic Installation,
Follett Library Database Software

Source Reliability

The source is a text rather than an internet source. The author and his work are reliable. The author has a background and experience in the subject matter. He is recognized by his industry as a subject matter expert.

Source Critiqued by

Edward N. Magno

emagno@

Mercyhurst College, Erie, PA

Advanced Analytic Techniques Course

June 2011

Sources Cited:

Hubbard relies heavily on his own web site and writings to support his premises but he cites a number of academic and business sources throughout the book.  

Haynes, A.C. “United 232: Coping With the ‘One-in-a-Billion’ Loss of All Flight Controls,” Accident Prevention Volume 48, June 1991.

N. Nohria, W. Joyce, and B. Roberson, “What Really Works,” Harvard Business Review, July 2003.

E. Zuckerman and J. Jost, “What Makes You Think You’re So Popular? Self-Evaluation Maintenance and the Subjective Side of the ‘Friendship Paradox,”’ Social Psychology Quarterly 64(3), 2001, 207-223.

D.M. Messick, S. Bloom, J.P. Boldizar, and C.D. Samuelson, “Why We Are Fairer Than Others,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 21, 1985, 480-500.

N.D. Weinstein, “Unrealistic Optimism About Future Life Events,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 39, 1980, 806-820.

O. Svenson, “Are We All Less Risky and More Skillful Than Our Fellow Drivers?,” Acta Psychologica 47, 1981, 143-148.

Source 2, Risk Analysis and the Security Survey

Broder, J. F. (2006). Risk analysis and the security survey (3rd ed.). Burlington, MA: Butterworth-Heinemann

Analytic Technique: Risk Analysis

.

Purpose of the Source

This book is a “how to do” book on physical security and risk analysis. The author, James Broder has a very narrow focus, risk analysis as a security management tool to safeguard specific assets and targets.

Content

The author has a very unique view of risk analysis for security, especially given his law enforcement background, and in light of the change in law enforcement and security since the 9/11 terror attacks. Broder separates security and law enforcement into two very distinct categories. His opinion is that the job of security is to prevent or deter and law enforcement has the responsibility to arrest and take action after the fact. This seems to be the exact opposite of the contemporary thinking in the law enforcement community. Since the 9/11 attacks US law enforcement has recognized and embraced the need and responsibility to forecast and deter.

Broder ‘s definition of risk for the purposes of his book is that risk is “the possibility of suffering harm or loss and danger or probability of loss occurring to ones insured assets (p.xv).” Broder’s view of Risk Analysis is that risk analysis is a management tool, which provides managers with information on which to base decisions. Broder believes that Risk Analysis is not a onetime event but rather an ongoing process subject to periodic review and oversight.

Broder’s method of Risk Analysis contradicts Douglas Hubbard’s contention that business professionals do not use valid statistic based methods in their risk assessments. Broder offers a number of methods which are statistic based. An example is his use of the formula to calculate Annual Loss Expectancy (ALE) (p.21).

First, the analyst considers the cost of loss (impact) in ranges of dollar amounts of 10. As an example, $10 let i = 1, $100, let i = 2, $1,000 let i = 3, $10,000 let i = 4, $100,000 let i = 5, $1,000,000 let i = 6, $10,000,000 let i = 7, $100,000,000 let i = 8.

Next, he or she examines the frequency (f) of the event: Once in 100 years let f= 1, once in 10 years let f = 2, once a year let f= 3, every six months let f= 4, once a month let f= 5, once a week let f= 6, every day let f= 7. The approximate value of ALE is equal to ALE = 10(f+i-3)/3.

Broder addresses criticisms of the use of order of magnitude expressions such as High, Medium, and Low. He states, “defining risks by using highly specific numbers has not always been validated by experience” (p.31). Further, that the use of terms like High, Medium, and Low roughly equate to probability ranges of 7-10, 4-6, and 1-3 respectively, indicating relative degrees of risk are more than adequate for most risk analysis scenarios.

Strengths

James Broder is a very strong proponent of risk analysis and identifies its most important strengths.

  • Risk analysis provides security managers with the means to identify risk and offer cost effective methods to deter and mitigate impact.

  • Current risk analysis methods offer the user a detailed step by step process to conduct effective, thorough, experienced based assessments.

Weaknesses of the Technique

Broder understands that the technique has certain weaknesses that need to be considered.

  • Risk analysis is a snapshot in time and must become a constant ongoing process.

  • Risk analysis is dependent on the skill, knowledge, experience, and motivation of the user. The most methodical statistic based calculations using mathematically sound methods still rely on the informed assessment of the subject matter expert.

Steps

The steps that Broder takes in conducting a risk analysis are:

  • Conduct a detailed site survey. Determine the assets of the entity or target.

  • Determine exposure. What are the possible sources of loss for the target or entity? What elements is the entity or target exposed to that could cause potential loss?

  • Establish a benchmark. What data is available to establish the frequency, magnitude, and range of past losses?

  • Measure Risk. Broder uses a cost evaluation and frequency of occurrence calculation and determines an Annual Loss Expectance (ALE).

  • Prioritize risk in terms of loss potential. Broder uses a Decision Matrix Using Severity of Loss and Frequency of loss quantifying these factors in terms of High, Medium, and Low.

  • Conduct a cost benefit analysis.

  • Recommend countermeasures and solutions to avoid or mitigate impact of risks.

  • Conduct a management audit of the process and recommendations.

  • Finalize the report in light of the audit..

Purpose of the Technique

Broder’s purpose in using risk analysis is to provide security for corporate and business entities. He seeks to protect the assets of his corporate clients

Comparison

Broder’s work is a how to book presenting his techniques for risk analysis in corporate security. Hubbards work is a how to measure and calculate risk. Broder’s method of Risk Analysis contradicts Douglas Hubbard’s contention that business professionals do not use valid statistic based methods in their risk assessments. Broder offers a number of methods which are statistic based. An example is his use of the formula to calculate Annual Loss Expectancy (ALE) (p.21).

Broder addresses Hubbard’s criticisms of the use of order of magnitude expressions such as High, Medium, and Low. He states, “Defining risks by using highly specific numbers has not always been validated by experience” (p.31). Further, that the use of terms like High, Medium, and Low roughly equate to probability ranges of 7-10, 4-6, and 1-3 respectively, indicating relative degrees of risk are more than adequate for most risk analysis scenarios.

Most Informative

Risk analysis is an ongoing process.It is important to frame risk assessments in respect to segments in time. It is important to conduct periodic reviews or at the very least identify milestones as a means of monitoring changes and critical issues that have impact on the analysis. 

About the Source Author

James F. Broder is a former FBI Agent. He has a Bachelor’s Degree in Criminology from the University of California at Berkeley. He has is an industry certified security specialist (CPP) with experience as a consultant for the US Department of State.

Source Reliability

This source is considered a reliable source based on the author’s background, education and experience as a subject matter expert in the field of security.

Source Critiqued By

Edward N Magno

emagno@

Mercyhurst College, Erie, PA

Advanced Analytic Techniques Course

23 June 2011

Sources Cited by This Source

Laplace, S.P.(1820). Analytic theory of probabilities. Paris, French Academy of Science

Source 3, Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice

Chavas, J. (2004). Risk analysis in theory and practice. London: Butterworth Heineman.

Analytic Technique: Risk Analysis
Purpose of the Source
This book is an academic work intended to present to professionals in the field of agriculture risk analysis, as an analytic framework for decision making under risk and its application to evaluate “economic behavior under uncertainty (p.1).” The author believes probability theory is the essential element in his framework for risk analysis.

Content

Chavas presents material intended for experienced statisticians or those with an intermediate or advanced understanding of mathematics. The author’s focus is decision-making in economics related to agriculture.

Although, Chavas presents methodologies that are very technical and based on complex mathematics, he makes a number of important and interesting points that anyone working with Risk Analysis can appreciate and understand. Unlike Hubbard or Broder, Chavas examines the understanding of human decision making in relation to the capacity and limitation of the human mind to evaluate and process information. Chavas believes that our understanding of how the human mind works is vital to our understanding of the processes we use to assess risk and the role and the value of information in risk management and decision-making.

His thinking is similar to that of Richards Heuer in Heuer’s treatment of the psychology of analysis. Chavas points out that the analyst has only a limited capacity to understand and process information no matter how much information is available. Therefore, no matter the validity of the formulas, calculations, and methods used the subjectivity of the human mind has an overwhelming impact on the process. He suggests that specialization and collaboration in risk analysis and the management of risk is vital in evaluating and processing the large amounts information we need to reduce uncertainty in decision-making.

Strengths of the Technique

Chavas believes that Risk Analysis is an important technique to overcome uncertainty in making critical economic decisions.

  • Risk analysis provides a refined framework to analyze decision-making under risk.

  • Probability Theory provides valid and accurate measures of risk for use by decision makers.

Weaknesses of the Technique

Chavas points out that risk analysis has weaknesses that need to be considered.

  • Collection and evaluation of information is subjective.

  • Information needs to be evaluated before subjecting it to the risk analysis process.

  • The human mind has a limited capacity to process information. Specialization and collaboration are needed for an effective application of the technique.

Steps

Chavas approach to risk analysis involves probability theory and complex mathematical computations.

  • Obtain data about repeatable events obtained through experimentation.

  • Use the sample information obtained during experimentation to identify “specific risky events (p.13).

  • Apply probability theory to describe and represent risky events.

  • Apply random variables into the equations.

  • Assess potential frequency of occurrence of risky events to reduce uncertainty.

Purpose of the Technique

Chavas uses risk analysis to reduce the level of uncertainty of those making economic decisions in the field of agriculture.

Comparison

Hubbard criticized risk analysis for a failure to use meaningful measurements and scientific, mathematically sound methods. Hubbard believes that modern risk analysis techniques do not have a proven history of success and have not developed a set of reliable best practice methods. Broder’s use of risk analysis has a very narrow scope, corporate security. However, he uses valid mathematical formulas to analyze collected data. Broder uses the severity of threats and their frequency of occurrence to support threat assessments.

Hubbard believes that the use of order of magnitude expressions such as high, medium, and low are examples of inaccurate measurements of threats and factors affecting the analysis of risk. Broder differs with Hubbard He states, “Defining risks by using highly specific numbers has not always been validated by experience” (p.31). Further, Broder believes the use of terms like High, Medium, and Low roughly equate to probability ranges of 7-10, 4-6, and 1-3 respectively, indicating relative degrees of risk are more than adequate for most risk analysis scenarios.

and threats.

Chavas’ methods and application of risk analysis use complex mathematics. However, Chavas acknowledges and accepts that the collection and processing of information is subjective. Unlike Hubbard he believes that risk analysis techniques present reliable methods to reduce uncertainty in decision making. He suggests specialization and collaboration to reduce the margin of error caused by the inability of the human mind to process large amounts of information.

Most Informative

The most important elements of Chavas’ work were his insights about the limitations of the human mind to process information and its impact on the process of risk analysis. His thinking and comments highlight the need for specialization and a collaborative effort in analysis in order to produce an effective product that will reduce uncertainty for the decision-maker

About the Source Author

Jean-Paul Chavas is an Assistant Professor of Agriculture and Economics at the University of Wisconsin. He has a PHD in Agricultural & Resources Economics from the University of California at Berkeley and a Masters Degree in Community Development and Applied Economics from the University of Vermont.

Source Reliability

The source is a book written by a reputable, recognized subject matter expert, associated with a reputable institution of higher learning.

Source Critiqued By

Edward N Magno

emagno@

Mercyhurst College, Erie, PA

Advanced Analytic Techniques Course

23 June 2011

Sources Cited by This Source

Allais, M. "Le Comportement de 1'Homme Rationnel Devant le Risque, Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de 1'Ecole Americaine" Econometrica 21(1953): 503-546.

Becker, Robert A., and John H. Boyd III. Capital Theory, Equilibrium Analysis and Recursive Utility. Blackwell Pub., 1997.

Campbell, John Y., A.W. Lo, and A.C. MacKinlay. The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1997.

Debreu, Gerard. Theory of Value. Cowles Foundation Monograph #17. Yale University Press, New Haven, 1959.

DeGroot, Morris H. Optimal Statistical Decisions. McGraw-Hill, New York, 1970.

Macho-Stadler, I, Pérez-Castrillo, J.D. (1997). Optimal auditing policy with heterogeneous incomes sources International Economic Review 38 (4), 951- 968.

Source 4, Terrorism and Organized Hate Crime

Ronczkowski, M. R. (2007). Terrorism and organized hate crime: Intelligence gathering analysis and investigations (2nd ed.). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.

Analytic Technique: Risk Analysis
Purpose of the Source

The first edition of Terrorism and Organized Hate Crime was written in 2006 as law enforcement intelligence was undergoing a major transition due mainly to the lessons learned from the terrorist attacks of September 11,2001. The book and its second edition was written to explain the shortcomings of law enforcement and its emerging role in the detection and prevention of terrorism and organized hate crimes.

Content

The author explains that terrorists choose targets for their attacks “based on the weaknesses they see in the victim’s defenses and preparedness (p. 148).” They look for the “soft targets.” The International Association of Chiefs of Police developed a four tier system to rank potential targets in terms of potential vulnerability. The book offers a process for risk analysis based on threat and vulnerability assessments and suggests the use of some effective information sources that support those processes.

Strengths of the Technique

The author identifies a number of important positive elements of risk analysis. He uses the word target to identify an entity that is at risk from attack or harm by a terrorist or organized hate crime group.

  • Threat analysis helps develop a prioritized list of potential targets

  • Threat analysis assists in forecasting the likelihood of an attack on priority targets.

Weaknesses of the Technique

The author points out that although risk analysis is a valuable tool in counterterrorism it has its weaknesses.

  • The accuracy of threat analysis is subject to the skill, knowledge and experience of the analyst or analysts that prepare it.

  • Threat analysis is dependent on the availability and reliability of the information available to the analyst or user.

Steps

The source provides the reader with a simple process for performing a risk analysis and developing a threat assessment.

  • Identify potential terrorist targets

  • Prioritize the target list

  • Identify terrorist groups that present a danger to the target by assessing their capabilities, motivation and past history

  • Conduct a vulnerability assessment of the target

  • Provide the decision-maker with an analysis to assist in applying resources to reduce target vulnerability to threats

Purpose of the Technique

The technique of risk analysis can be applied to identify weaknesses in security and the capabilities of groups that may present a danger to the safety and welfare of the public. The technique can provide decision-makers with intelligence that will allow them to make cost effective decisions to enhance the security of the public and private sectors of society against the threat of terrorist attacks and the losses resulting from those attacks.

Comparison

Douglas Hubbard in his work, The Failure of Threat Analysis believes that the methods used in threat analysis have not attained an acceptable level of accuracy and uniformity industry wide. He identifies some of the changes that need to be made. The focus of his criticism is in the use of threat analysis in business to identify and reduce uncertainty in decisions with financial impact.

James Broder’s book Risk Analysis and the Security Survey has a very narrow focus. His writing is a “how to” book for corporate security. Broder believes that the use of threat analysis is an effective means to protect corporate assets and entities, specifically buildings, locations, and people.

Jean-Paul Chavas’ Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is meant for readers with advanced capabilities in mathematics. Chavas believes that risk analysis is an effective tool in helping reduce uncertainty for decision-makers encountering threats in the field of agriculture. Chavas is primarily interested in the use of risk analysis in the economics of agriculture; however, he makes some interesting and astute observations about the technique. He points out that risk analysis depends on the limited capacity of the human mind to process information. Although this is a weakness in the technique he believes that specialization and collaborative efforts of subject matter experts can overcome the weakness.

Ronczowski presents the use of risk analysis as an essential and emerging technique used by law enforcement to protect the public and private sector against attacks from terrorists and other hate crime groups. In this sense Ronczowski disagrees with Broder’s view that law enforcement’s role is to respond rather than forecast and deter.

Most Informative

Most informative was the significant attention of law enforcement to develop its intelligence capability and the changes being made to its approach to intelligence as a tool to forecast terrorist events, as well as its role in supporting investigative efforts. This has been a slow change on the part of law enforcement. It requires that law enforcement managers learn and understand the techniques of the intelligence community and develop working relationships to achieve maximum impact.

About the Source Author

Michael R Ronczowski has 27 years’ experience in law enforcement. He served as the manager of an analytical intelligence unit and Deputy Director of the Miami-Dade Police Department. He also served as the Chief of Police of the Tampa Florida Police Department and Director of the US Marshal’s Service. Ronczowski has a Master’s Degree in Police Administration.

Source Reliability

The source is a book written by a recognized subject matter expert in the field of police science and intelligence analysis.

Source Critiqued By Edward N. Magno

emagno@

Mercyhurst College, Erie PA,

Advanced Analytic Techniques Course

3 July 2011 .

Sources Cited by This Source

Office of Homeland Security. (2001, October 12). Homeland security key elements of a risk management approach (White Paper). Washington, D.C.: General Accounting Office.

Heymann, P.B. (1998). Terrorism and America: A common sense strategy for a democratic society. Cambridge, MA. MIT Press

Gottlieb, S., Arenberg, S., Singh, R.(1994). Crime analysis: From first report to final analysis. Montclair, CA : Alpha Publishing

Heuer, R.J. (1999). The psychology of intelligence analysis. Washington, D.C. The Center for the Study of Intelligence.

Source 5, Intelligence Analysis: A Target Centric Approach, Robert M. Clark

Clark, R. M. (2007). Intelligence analysis: A target centric approach (2nd ed.). Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.

Analytic Technique: Risk Analysis

Purpose of the Source

The purpose of Robert M. Clark’s book is to discuss changes in the intelligence process in light of the intelligence failures examined in the 9/11and the Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission Reports. Clark reviews the value and role of Risk analysis, management, and assessment as a part of the discussion.

Content

The author offers risk analysis as a means of assessing the potential success of a program or project and outlines the steps to be taken in the risk analysis process. He identifies four categories of risk, programmatic, technical, production, and engineering and uses those categories to identify risks. Clark discusses risk assessment and management as elements of the process.

Strengths of the Technique

The author believes that risk analysis is an important tool in evaluating the success of a program or activity.

  • Estimates the success potential of a program

  • Assesses cost to benefit of the outcome of a program

Weaknesses of the Technique

The source points out that the technique has negative as well as positive aspects.

  • Difficult to do

  • Difficult to get the customer to accept

Steps

The author describes the steps used in threat analysis.

  • Identify and prioritize risks associated with a program

  • Assess impact

  • Identify actions to reduce risk

Purpose of the Technique

The author believes that risk analysis is an important technique to evaluate the probability that a process or program will achieve its desired outcome and the cost / benefit value of the program.

Comparison

Douglas Hubbard in, The Failure of Threat Analysis, is focused on the use of threat analysis in making decisions about financial aspects of business and industry. He offers methods to allow users of threat analysis to attain acceptable levels of accuracy and uniformity industry wide.

James Broder’s book Risk Analysis and the Security Survey uses risk analysis in the narrow to providing security of corporate assets and reducing the risk of damage or loss. He uses detailed security surveys and simple mathematic formulas to achieve his goals.

Jean-Paul Chavas’ Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice uses advanced mathematics and probability theory to assess risk and loss in the economics of agriculture.

Robert M. Clark is the first of the sources to apply risk analysis, assessment and management to the field of intelligence and national security.

Most Informative

Most informative was the author’s identification of categories for the assessment of risk. “Programmatic: funding, schedule, contract, relationships, political issues, Technical: feasibility, survivability, system performance, Production: manufacturability, lead times, packaging, equipment, Engineering: reliability, maintainability, training, operations.”

About the Source Author

The source is a book written by Robert M. Clark, a recognized expert in threat analysis. Clark spent 14 years as an analyst and group chief for the Central Intelligence Agency. He is currently a consultant to the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and the CIA on systems threat analysis.

Source Reliability

The source is a book written by a recognized expert in the field of intelligence analysis. The source is highly reliable based on the knowledge, experience and training of the author.

Source Critiqued By

Edward N. Magno

emagno@

Mercyhurst College, Erie PA

Advanced Analytic Techniques Course

July 5, 2011

Sources Cited by This Source

9/11 Commission Report. (2004). www.gpoaccess.gov/911/pdf/fullreport.pdf Brooks, F.P. (1975). The mythical man-month. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley

Report of the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. (2005). www.wmd.gov/report/wmd_report.pdf

Source 6, Risk Management and Intelligence in Review: Canada, Customs

Wynen, H. (1999). Risk management and intelligence in review: Canada, Customs. In V. Zicko & K. Slater (Eds.), Intelligence models and best practices (pp. 9-13). Retrieved from /files/other/Intelligence%20Models%20and%20Best%20Practices.pdf

Analytic Technique: Risk Analysis

Purpose of the Source

The purpose of the source is to provide professionals in law enforcement intelligence with a menu of proven analytic options.

Content

The source is a book that provides a brief but informative explanation of standard analytic techniques and their application in law enforcement. The chapter on risk management and analysis provides the reader with the basic steps in the process, the rationale for its use, and guidelines for application.

Strengths of the Technique

The author discusses the positive outcomes of the technique its strengths.

  • Provides focus for law enforcement operations

  • Promotes efficient use of resources

Weaknesses of the Technique

The author believes that the technique has been of great value to the Canadian Border Services Agency but its negative aspect.

  • The process requires continual updates and reassessment to be effective over time.

Steps

The author uses a five-step process for risk analysis.

  1. Identify the risk

  2. Assess the risk, the likelihood of occurrence

  3. Develop solutions

  4. Measure performance

  5. Evaluate the process

Purpose of the Technique

Risk analysis and management provides managers with concrete information about existing and emerging threats as a basis for decision-making.

Comparison

Douglas Hubbard in, The Failure of Threat Analysis, is focused on the use of threat analysis in making decisions about financial aspects of business and industry. He offers methods to allow users of threat analysis to attain acceptable levels of accuracy and uniformity industry wide.

James Broder’s book Risk Analysis and the Security Survey uses risk analysis with a limited focus the narrow to providing security of corporate assets and reducing the risk of damage or loss.

Jean-Paul Chavas’ Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice uses advanced mathematics and probability theory to assess risk and loss in the economics of agriculture.

Ronczowski’s book discusses changes in the processes and techniques used in law enforcement in intelligence and analysis as a means of forecasting and deterring threats rather than investigating and responding.

Robert M. Clark is the first of the sources to apply risk analysis, assessment, and management to the field of intelligence and national security.

The publication of the International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts (IALEIA) is a menu of proven intelligence techniques used by law enforcement. The description and explanation of the use of risk analysis and management was brief, informative and presented with case studies to show its application.



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