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Figure 5

Evaluation Scale for Motivation

Score

Reason

Desire

High = 7-10

Target entity is perceived as a threat to existence

Responsible for successful or failed terror acts

Medium = 3-6

Target entity is perceived as being a destructive force to religious, political, financial or social well being

Reliable information or documentation of actual planning or attempts to execute terrorist acts against an entity or potential target.

Low = 1-2

Target entity is perceived as an impediment to religious, political, financial, or social goals or advancement

Demonstrations or rhetoric threatening the use of terrorism to achieve a goal

Figure 6

Motivation Score Against US Target

Group

Reason

Desire

Total Score ( R + D / 2)

TTP

10

10

Very High 10

BLA

5

8

High 6.5

BRA

5

8

High 6.5

LEI

3

7

Medium 5

Lashkar I Jhangvi

8

9

High 8.5

BLUF

2

7

Medium 4.5

Al-Qaida

10

10

Very High 10


Based on the criteria used to determine capacity and motivation the TTP, Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, and Al-Qaida are identified as credible threats to the US Pakistani Joint Intelligence Center.

A vulnerability assessment of the UPIC facility was conducted using a standard security checklist (Appendix B) found significant gaps in physical security vulnerable to the high level threats identified in the threat assessment. Those vulnerabilities were noted as:

a) Insufficient CCT surveillance capability.

b) Insufficient setback for military headquarters building

c) Jersey Barriers are not sufficient to repel large vehicle born improvised explosive device (VBIED)

d) Communications mismatch. Military guard does not have communication compatibility with US communication network

  1. Develop options to mitigate or neutralize risks
    Options were identified toresolve the vulnerabilities:
    a) Add 2 CCT cameras to resolve blind spots at a cost of $2500

    b) Add outer perimeter chain link to increase setbacks and protect against large VBIED at a cost of $3000

    c) Add automated pop up vehicle barriers to increase security against VBIED at a cost of $10,000

    d) Purchase communication base station and portable handsets with common frequencies with military units at $7,000

  2. Evaluate and prioritize threats, vulnerabilities and consequences to identify cost effective options to avoid or mitigate risks
    Terrorist groups were identified as credible threats based on the capabilities and motivations of those groups. Information collection and analysis found increased activity during the last 3 months.

    Indications are that there is a little more than 50 50 likelihood that the US Pakistani Joint Intelligence Center (UPIC) will be a potential target for the groups presenting the threat. The center is a potential threat to the groups and is a symbol of cooperation between the US and Pakistani Governments. A successful strike against the target would gain international attention and provide those responsible increased stature nationally and internationally.

    Security enhancements to resolve security issues will cost $22,500 and increase security by 60%. Considering the potential consequences for loss of life and resources, and the tactical, political and international impact of an attack the expenditures are reasonable and cost effective.


  3. Use expert opinion to review validity of analysis: process and recommendations
    Subject matter experts and experienced analysts will review the process and answer the questions:

Was the risk assessment conducted using a valid, accurate, systematic process?

Were the threat and vulnerability assessments the result of the analysis of reliable information and sources?

Were countermeasures relevant to the analytic question, clearly stated and cost effective?

  1. Deliver analytic product to the decision-maker
    Once the process and the product has been reviewed and the value and validity of assessment has been determined, the end product will be generated according to the form and format agreed upon by the decision-maker and the head of the analytic project. The product will be delivered to the decision maker.

Four criteria were selected to evaluate the effectiveness of the risk analysis technique: The ability to identify a credible threat, identification the vulnerability of a target to the threat, formation of countermeasures to avoid or mitigate the threat and the reduction of vulnerability.

Using information gathered from open sources using the internet the project manager was able to identify active terrorist groups with the capability and motivation to attack the US Pakistani Joint Intelligence Center at Rawalpindi. The past patterns and motivations of these groups indicate that there is a greater than 50 50 likelihood that one of these groups will attempt to attack the intelligence center. Measurements of elements of capability and motivation for each of the groups supported the assessment and identified the groups most likely to perpetrate and attack.

Credible threats were identified and a vulnerability assessment of the subject target was conducted. Weaknesses were found that made the target vulnerable to the threats. Once identified, resolutions and countermeasures to the vulnerabilities were formulated considering efficiency as well as effectiveness. The implementation of the simple and relatively inexpensive resolutions to the vulnerabilities reduced the vulnerability of the target to the threat.

The analytic technique was found to be moderately successfully addressing the analytic question. The rating scale in figure 7 was used to score the effectiveness of the analytic technique in addressing the analytic question.

Figure 7

Criteria

Results of process

Score

Weight

Total Score

1

Reduction of vulnerability

Overall vulnerability was reduced by 60%

.6

50

30

2

Identification of Vulnerability

Vulnerabilities were found in key areas of perimeter security, communication, surveillance and detection, blast deterrence

.8

20

16

3

Formulation of Countermeasures

Simple cost effective measures were formulated to overcome major vulnerabilities

.8

20

16

4

Identification of Credible Threat

The most active dangerous and credible threats were identified

.9

10

9

Evaluation of Scoring

Highly Effective

76 - 100

Moderately Effective

51 - 75

Minimally Effective

26 - 50

Ineffective

0 - 25

Analytic Question Data

The table below represents the collection of data that used in conducting the risk assessment for the personal test case. The relevance of data to the analytic question and its ability to provide accurate information to conduct a valid assessment was the basis for its selection. The evaluation rating scale created by Dax Norman found in Appendix A was the basis for evaluating source and data reliability.

Analytic Question: What is the likelihood that the joint US - Pakistani Police Intelligence Center at Rawalpindi will be the target of a terrorist attack within the next 6 to 12 months?

Data

Data Date

Source Name or Location

Estimated Reliability of Data/Source

Other Comments

Level of sophistication of Pakistani Taliban and motivation for attacks against US targets

13 May 2011

Birsel, Robert, Reuters News Service. /article/2011/05/13/us-pakistan-taliban-qa-idUSTRE74C21620110513

High Credibility

44.75

Documents sophistication of TTP US targets have

Increased vulnerability analysis of motivation

Increases in terrorist activity by Pakistani Taliban

28 July 2011

Sandani, M.Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

/blog/increased-taliban-activity-pakistan

High Credibility

45.32

Increase in frequency of attacks

Background, facts and events identifying issues and trends in counterinsurgency in Pakistan

2010

Jones, Seth G. and C. Christine Fair. Counterinsurgency in Pakistan. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2010.

High Credibility 45.32

Trend data

Police establishment is best tool to combat terrorism / insurgency

2010

Jones, Seth G. and C. Christine Fair. Counterinsurgency in Pakistan. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2010.

High Credibility 40.15

Estimate by credible analytic source

Pakistan's NW Border is most active location and focus of most of terrorist/insurgency activity

2010

Jones, Seth G. and C. Christine Fair. Counterinsurgency in Pakistan. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2010.

High Credibility 45.32

Trend data

Terrorist events worldwide for 2011 / Types of attacks/location/ groups responsible

January-July 2011

United States Government Counterterrorism Center http://www.nctc.gov/site/index.html

High Credibility 45.32

Trend data

Terrorist events worldwide for 2010 / Types of attacks/location/ groups responsible

2010

United States Government Counterterrorism Center http://www.nctc.gov/docs/ct_calendar_2010.pdf

High Credibility 45.32

Trend data

Terrorist events worldwide for 2009 / Types of attacks/location/ groups responsible

2009

United States Government Counterterrorism Center http://www.nctc.gov/witsbanner/docs/2009_report_on_terrorism.pdf

High Credibility 45.32

Trend data

Source identifies the five major / most active terrorist groups operating in Pakistan

13-May-11

Bajoria, J., Pakistan’s new generation of terrorists. Council on Foreign Relations. /pakistan/pakistans-new-generation-terrorists/p15422

Very High Credibility 49.1

Trend data and estimate by recognized SME

Patterns of terrorism in South Asia

29-Jun-11

Gagel, A.C., Cordesman, A.H.(2011) Patterns in terrorism in North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia: 2007-2010. Washington, D.C. Center for Strategic and International Studies. /files/publication/110629_MENA_Central_Asia_China_Terrorism_2007_2010.pdf

Very High Credibility 49.1

Trend data and estimate by recognized SME

Report of attack: Taliban attack on police station Northwest Border Area Pakistan

25-Jun-11

Naples, Florida Daily News-June 26, 2011, Associated Press by Ishtiaq Mahsud

High Credibility 45.32

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for June 2011

Report of terrorist attack: Taliban executes 16 police officers in Northwest territories as traitors to God and Muslim religion

18-Jul-11

Maqbool, Aleen, BBC, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-14181938

High Credibility 45.32

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for July 2011

Report of terrorist attack: 2 Taliban suicide bombers attack police training facility in NW Pakistan at bus stop 98 killed

13-May-11

BBC May 25, 2011 .pk/story/175661/timeline-terrorist-attacks-in-pakistan-in-may-2011/

High Credibility 45.32

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for May 2011

Report of terrorist attack: Gunmen on motorcycles kill Saudi Diplomat, Karachi Group responsible unk

16-May-11

BBC May 25, 2011 .pk/story/175661/timeline-terrorist-attacks-in-pakistan-in-may-2011/

High Credibility 45.32

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for May 2011

Report of terrorist attack:Gunmen on motorcycles kill Saudi Diplomat, Karachi Group responsible unk

18-May-11

BBC May 25, 2011 .pk/story/175661/timeline-terrorist-attacks-in-pakistan-in-may-2011/

High Credibility 45.32

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for May 2011

Report of terrorist attack: 4 Shi''ite Muslums killed by Sunni gunmen in Quette sectarian issue

18-May-11

BBC May 25, 2011 .pk/story/175661/timeline-terrorist-attacks-in-pakistan-in-may-2011/

High Credibility 45.32

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for May 2011

Report of terrorist attack:Taliban armed attack on US Consulate convoy Peshawar 1 Pakistani killed 2 US wounded

20-May-11

BBC May 25, 2011 .pk/story/175661/timeline-terrorist-attacks-in-pakistan-in-may-2011/

High Credibility 45.32

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for May 2011

Report of terrorist attack: 17 fuel trucks destroyed in attacks on NATO convoys to Afghanistan by Taliban (IED) 16 Pakistani's killed

21-May-11

BBC May 25, 2011 .pk/story/175661/timeline-terrorist-attacks-in-pakistan-in-may-2011/

High Credibility 45.32

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for May 2011

Report of terrorist attack: Highly trained well equiped Taliban insurgent team attacked a Pakistani Naval facility destroyed aircraft and equipment furnished by US

22-May-11

BBC May 25, 2011 .pk/story/173888/blast-on-dalmia-road/

High Credibility 45.32

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for May 2011

Report of terrorist attack: Suicide bomb attack outside shrine in Punjab 50 killed Sectarian issue

3-Apr-11

Pakistan Express: Tribune .pk/story/157073/timeline-pakistan-tainted-with-attacks-in-2011/

High Credibility 44.75

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for April 2011

Report of terrorist attack: Bombing of gambling club 19 killed sectarian violence or gang violence

21-Apr-11

Pakistan Express: Tribune
.pk/story/154468/blast-at-a-gambling-den/

High Credibility 44.75

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for April 2011

Report of terrorist attack: Taliban attacks of security forces 14 killed Northwest Territories

22-Apr-11

Pakistan Express: Tribune.pk/story/154250/cross-border-militants-swoop-on-security-post-in-lower-dir

High Credibility 44.75

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for April 2011

Report of terrorist attack: Armed attack and firebombing by gunmen 15 killed motive and group unknown

26-Apr-11

Pakistan Express: Tribune.pk/story/156878/12-killed-as-gunmen-torch-bus-in-sibbi/

High Credibility 44.75

Report of terrorist attack - trend data for April 2011

Evaluation of activities of

Lashkar I Jhangvi

Apr 2009

Abbas, Hassan. Council for Foreign Relations /pakistan/ctc-sentinel-defining-punjabi-taliban-network/p20409

High Credibility

45.44

Report of activities and level of sophistication of Lashkar I Jhangvi

 Annex 1. Detailed Literature Review

The literature review identified eight sources with various perspectives and applications of risk analysis. The sources presented applications of risk analysis for government and the private sector. The analytic question is related to risk analysis of a terrorist threat against a government facility but the test case benefited from the perspectives of both the government and non-government applications of the technique.

Source 1, The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix it

Hubbard, D. W. (2009). The failure of risk management: Why it’s broken and how to fix it (2nd ed.). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.



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